In Risk: The Science and Politics of Fear, Gardner examined the psychology that drives how we decide what to worry about and what to ignore. In Future Babble, Gardner surveyed the long history of grand-scale forecasting and revealed why such forecasting has consistently delivered terrible results. In Superforecasting, co-written with Wharton Business School’s Philip E. Tetlock, Gardner looked at the world’s largest forecasting research program and what it discovered about the rare few forecasters who are demonstrably excellent. And in How Big Things Get Done, co-written with Oxford University’s Bent Flyvbjerg, Gardner revealed the poor track record of major projects, identified poor planning as the principal cause, and showed how to turn failure into triumph.
In this presentation, Gardner will demonstrate a technique routinely used by outstanding forecasters. And he will show how, with a little imagination, this same technique can be used to improve decision-making in a wide array of situations – from identifying risks to designing new programs or projects and even creating an early-warning system for critical issues. It’s simple. It’s practical. It’s useful in a many different circumstances. It is the Swiss Army Knife of decision-making – something you should always have in your pocket.
Before becoming an author, Gardner was an investigative journalist in Canada. He holds a law degree and a master’s degree in modern history and is an honorary senior fellow at the University of Ottawa’s Graduate School of Public and International Affairs.
Be sure to catch Dan Gardner at SKAGEN Funds' New Year's Conference 2025.